The Future of Cyber Crime

Over the past years we have witnessed the illegal uses of the Internet to completely change in form, shape, and objectives. Today's hackers are often members of the organized crime who hack computers for profit or even for political power. Motivated by radical new goals and armed with exceptional programming skills they pose a major challenge to cybercrime researchers and law enforcement investigators alike. The field of cybercrime is a multidisciplinary area that includes law, computer science, finance, telecommunications, and data analysis.

Online security companies have made their predictions for 2015, from the malware that will be trying to weasel its way onto our computers and smartphones to the prospect of cyberwar involving state-sponsored hackers. WebSense suggests, “Cybercriminals upping their game are perfecting their campaign abilities previously associated only with advanced, targeted attacks. These advanced tactics designed to evade most modern email security solutions are quickly becoming the new norm as more sophisticated email threats increase...”

A parallel trend cited by several information security companies is the prospect of attacks on bigger companies in the private and public sector, with cybercriminals having specific goals in mind. Executives at some of the world’s largest banks are pressing government officials to pursue cyber criminals more aggressively or let the industry off the leash to fight them directly. The topic has shot up the agenda at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year, partly because of a series of high-profile incidents in the past 12 months, including the theft from JPMorgan Chase of data belonging to 75 million US households. Cybercriminals go after bigger targets rather than home users as this can generate more profits for them. We will see more data breach incidents with banks, financial institutions, and customer data holders remaining to be attractive targets.

One of the most common forms of malware in 2014 was “ransomware” – cybercriminals trying to extort money from victims either by locking their devices and demanding a fee to release them, or by accusing them of various unpleasant crimes. Ransomware will be a key strategy for malware developers and it will be a more relevant threat in coming years. During 2014, we have seen big companies hit by ransomware (like Yahoo, Match and AOL). In December 2014, in a panel discussion called “Cybercrime 2020: The Future of Online Crime and Investigations” it was said that "...ransomware is the future of consumer cybercrime".

As more of our devices talk to one another – the “Internet of Things” – there may be a range of new cybersecurity headaches to think about,  from domestic appliances to home security and climate control. It has to be said that some reporting on IoT hacking has exaggerated the scale of the problem. While it probably won’t be a massive problem next year, it is an emerging space for cyber crime.

As 2014 ended with the now-infamous hack of Sony Pictures – with intense debate about whether North Korea was involved – security firms see 2015 bringing a greater prospect of cyberattacks on behalf of nation states, even if they don’t run them themselves. Cyber warfare is very attractive to small nations. The development of a government-built malware is cheaper than any other conventional weapon and far more accessible to any nation-state. Cyber warfare represents for every government an efficient alternative to conventional weapons. The boundaries between cybercriminal gangs and governments may also blur. “Criminal groups will increasingly adopt nation-state tactics,” predicts Kaspersky.

One suggested solution is cyber security awareness and advice – where the public and businesses can go to get the information they need to protect themselves, how to implement basic controls to protect their data and privacy, and finally who to trust online and who to avoid.